The 2023 NBA Finals begin today in Denver, Colorado. It’s the 1-seed Denver Nuggets taking on the 8-seed Miami Heat in a quest for the NBA Championship. The Nuggets have consistently been the top seed in the West for the entirety of the season and have defeated championship favorites such as the Phoenix Suns and the Los Angeles Lakers en route to their very first finals appearance in franchise history. Nuggets fans have been waiting for this moment for a long time, and they will be ready when the Finals tip off tonight. On the other hand, as an 8-seed who were on the verge of getting eliminated from playoff contention in the Play-In Tournament, the Heat have made one the most impressive runs in NBA Playoff History as they are only the second 8-seed to make the finals since the New York Knicks in 1999. They defeated the NBA’s top two teams this year, the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics, and a very talented New York Knicks team.
No one expected the Heat to be in this position. The Heat just escaped humiliation. After being up 3-0 on the Celtics, the Heat proceeded to lose three games in a row. They were close to being on the wrong side of NBA history as they were about to become the first team ever in NBA History to blow a 3-0 lead in a playoff series. However, the Celtics didn’t show up for primetime in Game 7. The Celtics weren’t able to make history and finish the comeback like the other three teams in the same scenario (1951 Knicks, 1994 Nuggets, 2003 Blazers). However, the 8-seed has yet to win the NBA Finals. Jimmy Butler, the best player on the Miami Heat, delivered his promise from last year when he said that the Heat would be back this year in the same situation and would beat the Celtics. Well, would you know? It happened! The Heat went into TD Garden and dominated the Celtics. The Heat are returning to the finals for the 8th time in franchise history. As no one expected, we have the 1-seed taking on the 8-seed in the NBA Finals! It’s Nikola Jokic vs. Jimmy Butler! Who will lead their team to become NBA Champions?
Nikola Jokic is one of the best players in the NBA and has silenced all his critics with this year’s playoff run. The Nuggets got swept by my Phoenix Suns and lost to Golden State Warriors in five the past two years. However, they were without their 2nd best player Jamal Murray both of those years due to a torn ACL. Their 3rd best player, Michael Porter Jr., missed the entirety of last year due to a back injury. The last time the Nuggets were healthy, they lost to the Lakers in the Conference Finals in the NBA Bubble in 2020. Interestingly, the Nuggets lost to the team that advanced to the NBA Finals each past three years (2020 – Lakers, 2021 – Suns, 2022 – Warriors). They beat two of the same teams this year on their path to the Finals (the Suns in Conference Semis and the Lakers in Conference Finals)!
The Nuggets have won 6 straight games against the Heat, and the Heat have not won a game in Denver since the 2016-17 season. The Heat have lost the past six games they have played in Denver. This year specifically, Denver beat Miami by 4 and 5 points, respectively, in their games. Overall, Denver was 34 – 7 at home in the regular reason, the second-best home record in the NBA this year. The Nuggets are also undefeated at home this postseason, as they are 8 – 0. Denver is known as the “Mile High City” as it is an entire mile above sea level. Denver has an altitude of 5208 ft, while Miami has an altitude of 6 ft. Hence, when playing in Denver, this high altitude makes breathing more difficult for players and causes rapid fatigue. The Nuggets are known for taking advantage of the altitude and winning games, as they are the 7th best home team of all time at 1235-659. However, things have changed since the last time these two teams matched up in February. The Heat have defied all odds and gone through many ups and downs to reach this point. At the same time, the Nuggets have consistently been the 1-seed out West for the majority and have overcome the disrespect from media members.
The Miami Heat are different from a typical 8-seed. They were the 1-seed in the East last season and were also in the Conference Finals. They were dealing with injury issues the first half of this year; hence they fell to the 7-seed and the play-in tournament, where they were on the verge of getting eliminated from the Playoffs altogether. Jimmy Butler is a different beast in the Playoffs as his production increases, and he shines and elevates his game to another level. Another interesting fact is that the Heat had a Top-10 defense but the worst offense out of all NBA teams this season. Ironically, the Heat were one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the regular season, but they were the best in this year’s playoffs. Players like Caleb Martin, Duncan Robinson, and Gabe Vincent stepped up in critical moments throughout the Heat’s entire playoff run. They helped Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, leading to a team effort.
In these Finals, the Heat will face a team unlike any team they have met these playoffs, as they are facing a well-rounded and complete Nuggets team led by Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and a deep roster of excellent role players. Jokic is the best player in the league and has been playing with a chip on his shoulder since he got robbed of the MVP Award, which went to Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers. After the 76ers chocked and their star players Harden and Embiid disappeared when it mattered the most, and especially after the Nuggets essentially steamrolled to the Finals with a 12-3 record, it is clear that Jokic got robbed of his third-straight MVP award. So far, Jokic has been the best player in the NBA Playoffs, averaging a triple-double (30.4 points, 13.8 rebounds, and 10.2 assists). Jamal Murray is also averaging 27.7 points, and the Nuggets have four other players averaging over 10 points these playoffs. Overall, the Nuggets have a deep and talented roster. Also, the Nuggets have dominated their competition these playoffs (Beat the T-Wolves in 5, the Suns in 6, and the Lakers in 4). The Nuggets are unlike the Celtics, who can’t close games and rely heavily on the three-point shot. The Heat just played an unserious team, the Celtics. Unlike the Celtics, the Nuggets will come out and play and not choke up threes all game. Another advantage the Nuggets have is an entire week and a half of rest compared to the Heat, who only had two days of rest. If the threes are falling, the Celtics win games, but if they don’t go down, they struggle to figure something else out. The Nuggets play team basketball, and the results show they are 12-3 in these NBA Playoffs. However, the way the Heat have played in their playoffs and them having grit, grind, and toughness are critical reasons why we can never count them out of any series.
Another thing that makes the Heat’s run in these playoffs so impressive is that they have been without their third-best player Tyler Herro, who broke his hand in their first-round series against the Bucks, this entire playoff run. Herro might return some time during these NBA Finals, most likely being Game 3. They were also missing a great role player in Victor Oladipo, who can provide a lot of help on both sides of the ball.
Even though Jokic is dominating these playoffs, he has to continue to do that against the Heat. He especially has to be dominant in the paint, where he will be guarded by Bam Adebayo. However, Jokic was able to dominate Anthony Davis in the paint against the Lakers, so he should have no problem doing that against Adebayo. It’s hard to guard Jokic due to his ability to pass the ball and the mastery of the pick-and-roll play, especially double-teaming him. When opposing teams do that, Jokic can easily pass the ball to Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who can easily make three-point shots. This was a way the Nuggets beat the Heat twice in the regular season as they took and hit the three-point shots at a more efficient rate. The Heat will have to come up with a way to limit the Nuggets’ ability to hit three-point shots, which might cost them games and, ultimately, the NBA Championship.
The Nuggets’ offense is primarily led by Jokic, and the Heat must figure out a way to shut him down or at least limit his impact, which is easier said than done. One advantage the Nuggets have over the Heat is size, which creates mismatches in which the Nuggets can dominate. Bam Adebayo will be the primary defender on Jokic, and this will be a crucial X-Factor on whether or not the Heat will be able to win the series. Adebayo has to be the one on the Heat to step up and slow down Jokic and his impact in this Finals. Overall, Heat’s defense has to tire out Jokic by the 4th quarter and take advantage. The Heat has to take advantage of Jokic on the offensive side when he drops back to the paint, as they must take and hit their three-point shots with the open gap the players have. Since Jokic is also slow, the players on the Heat have to attack the paint and get easy layups or find someone open to hit a jump shot if someone rotates to the paint. This will give the Heat an easier time keeping up with the Denver offense.
Jamal Murray is playing like a Superstar and always seems to elevate his game in the playoffs when his team needs him the most. We have seen that this year and in the Bubble when he last played in the Playoffs. One moment he stepped up, especially in Game 2 against the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, when he took over the game in the 4th quarter. In these playoffs, Murray is averaging 27.7 points while shooting 48% from the field, 40% from the three, and 93% from the free-throw line. This is near 50-40-90 Splits, which is an exclusive club for NBA players to be in. Murray and Jokic have been a problematic duo to stop, as they can go off at any moment in any game. However, Murray has yet to face a defense like the Heat, with players like Kyle Lowry and Caleb Martin who can make things hard for him. Murray had seven games in which he had over 30 points this playoffs. Murray is also an excellent shot-creator and can find players for the open shot. It’s also hard to double-team Murray as he can give the ball to Jokic, who can bully the Miami defense in the post. This, alongside the deadly Nuggets offense filled with constant rotation and ball movement, is a recipe for disaster for opposing teams.
The Heat and Nuggets have excellent coaches in Erik Spoelstra and Michael Malone. They are amongst the most experienced coaches as Spoelstra (Heat) is the 2nd-longest tenured coach while Malone (Nuggets) is the 4th longest-tenured coach in the League amongst all coaches. But when it comes to who has an advantage, it’s Spoelstra. Spoelstra always finds a way to take advantage of any opportunity he can. For example, in game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals, Spoelstra ran a zone defense, leading the Heat back into the game. Then in Game 7, Spoelstra alternated between zone and man-to-man defense, confusing the Celtics, which is a critical reason why the Heat was able to dominate them. Michael Malone is also an excellent coach. The Nuggets are one of the best playoff offenses in NBA History.
In terms of Finals experience, The Miami Heat was Udonis Haslem (6), Kevin Love (3), and Kyle Lowry (1) with experience. Haslem was part of all of the Heat’s finals appearances dating back to their first one in 2006. Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, and Gabe Vincent were all part of the team in the NBA Bubble when the Heat made the Finals in 2020. On the other hand, the Denver Nuggets only have Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who won the Finals with the Lakers in 2020, and Jeff Green, who went to the Finals with the Cavs in 2018. For the rest of the Nuggets roster, it will be their first-ever Finals appearance in their careers. So overall, the Heat have the edge over the Nuggets when it comes to experience.
The Heat have already taken out one 1-Seed. Jimmy Butler’s will and motivation are significant factors in why the Heat are competing for a championship. Butler needs to have his name written all over this series and has to dominate the Finals if he wants to lead his team to an NBA Championship. He has to replicate his production against the Knicks and the Bucks if the Heat wants to beat the Nuggets and become NBA Champions. If he already wasn’t, Butler would become a Superstar and a Top 5 player in the entire league. The odds are against the Heat once again. Will they be able to defy the odds again and win it all this time?
Nope. The Nuggets will be too much for the Heat to handle as the Nuggets will lift the franchise’s very first NBA Championship. Nikola Jokic will win the 2023 Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP award, adding to his list of accomplishments. It will be a close and intense series with games going down to the wire. I will be rooting for the Heat as I love to see the underdog story win it all and do the unthinkable. The Heat were the ultimate underdog in all of their series this entire postseason as an 8-seed, and they were also dealing with injury issues. I would not be shocked at all if they pulled off another upset. However, the Heat will miss the production of Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo when it matters the most. When Tyler Herro comes back, will he be 100% and fully able to contribute to his team?
Both the Nuggets and Heat deserve credit for what they’ve been able to accomplish so far. Regardless of what happens, either Nikola Jokic or Jimmy Butler will cement themselves in NBA History. However, in the end, I got the Denver Nuggets defeating the Miami Heat in 6 games. (Final Prediction: Denver Nuggets in 6 )
By the way, I’m happy that we get to see new teams and faces in the NBA Finals. Ever since I started watching the NBA in 2012, I have constantly seen either Lebron or Curry and the Warriors essentially dominate the past Era as they won most of the championships. This is only the second time I haven’t seen either of them in the Finals since 2021. As a neutral basketball fan for this year’s NBA Finals, I’m excited to see 2 new and fresh teams in the Finals that just play ball!
