For the casuals who think this is a terrible finals matchup, I really doubt that you love the sport of basketball or the NBA. We are getting two teams with loyal and passionate fanbases. One of these teams are about to win their first ever NBA Championship. If you are a real, hardcore basketball/NBA fan, you are pumped for this matchup. It is really is refreshing to not see LeBron James or the Golden State Warriors for the billionth time.
This NBA Finals has the potential to be a hardcore fight and may end up surprising people and becoming one of the most best and competitive NBA Finals of all time. The Pacers have made it back to the Finals for the first time in 25 years. They solidified themselves as Eastern Conference contenders for years to come.
Since January 1st, the Thunder and the Pacers have the two best records in the entire league. The Thunder are 53 – 13, while the Pacers are 46 – 18. Both teams were fantastic during the playoffs and pretty much won all the games they were supposed to win, convincingly. This is the first time since the 2020 that both of the NBA Finalists have lost only four games or less on their way to the finals. The Lakers and the Heat were the last team to do that (BTW, the bubble championship does count and was one of the toughest and unique rings to get in NBA History. People only discredit it because they hate LeBron. Period).
Both of these teams have their own style of play. The OKC Thunder are led by this year’s MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is an incredibly gifted isolation scorer and carries the offensive load of his team. On the other hand, the Indiana Pacers play effective team basketball and have the ultimate team offense with quick ball movement. They also have a selfless leader in Tyrese Haliburton, who as a matter of fact, was voted the most overrated player in the league by all of the players and coaches. He has been on a mission in these playoffs to prove everybody wrong, and he definitely has delivered. Haliburton has really been effective and clutch. Speaking of clutch, he had three iconic game-winners in each round of the playoffs thus far. He had a game-winning layup to close the Bucks in the first round. Then, in the following round, he hit a game winner against the Cavs in game two. He did not stop there as in game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the New York Knicks, Haliburton hit one of the most iconic buzzer beaters to force overtime. He has really been efficient, average almost 19 points, 10 assists, and 6 rebounds in these playoffs, proving his doubters wrong. Haliburton literally had one of the most impressive stat-lines ever as he became the first player in NBA History to have 30 points, 15 assists, and 10 rebounds, alongside 0, yes zero, turnovers in a playoff game. It’s going to be a fast-paced, up-and-down, back-and-forth series between these two teams. Both teams have solid depth and role players who can step up for their respective teams whenever their name is called.
For the first time in a long time, decades pretty much, we have the best offense (Indiana Pacers) going up against the best defense (OKC Thunder). These two teams are also pretty much home-grown as they were built through the draft, trades, and smart role-player signings. We also have to give credit to the coaches and trainers who were able to effectively develop the players. We have a 25-year old who is highly underrated and a 26 year old who has played like an all-time great, but still is heavily disrespected and one of the most hated on superstars in recent memory. I’m going to say this once again, we are currently witnessing the rise of a new and fun generation of basketball. I am really excited to see this finals.
The Thunder are good on both sides of the ball, and as a matter of fact, they are the best defensive team in the league. They also have the best playoff defensive rating in almost six years (2019 Bucks and Raptors). The Thunder have 7 players who have a top-50 defensive rating. Having good defense in an offense-driven league is really impressive and makes the case for one of the best defensive teams of all time. SGA and Jalens Williams had the best defensive rating in the league amongst all players this season.
On the Pacers side, they have to properly execute their transition and half-court offense if they want to have any chance. We saw in the Eastern Conference Finals that they are the most effective and unstoppable if they execute quickly and early on in the shot clock. In game three of the Eastern Conference Finals, the Pacers dominated the transition game in the first half and went up 20 points on the Knicks. This was because they played quickly, hence not allowing the Knicks to properly set up their defensive schemes. The Pacers ended up losing that game in the second half because they slowed down their pace, making them less effective. Basically, the Pacers have one of the best transition offenses in the league, which makes it difficult for the opposing defenses to get set and stop them on time. When they go early in the shot clock, they are tough to beat. The Pacers also thrive off ball movements and spacing. They have players like Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nemhard, and even Myles Turner, who all can catch fire from the three. These specific players can hit spot-up three and cut to the basket and get points the hard way. The Pacers need to exploit certain matchup if they want to win games against this stacked Thunder team. Some of these matchups has to be Siakam against Chet Holmgren and Myles Turner against Isaiah Hartenstein. These are the only positions where the Pacers have any chance to take any advantage. Siakam has an unguardable turnaround fadeaway jumper in the post-up and has one of his best three-point shooting seasons yet. Holmgren did miss most of the season with an injury, but in the 32 games he played, he shot 38% from the three as well as blocking 2 shots per game. He needs to slow down Siakam, who is fresh off an Eastern Conference Final MVP award. They will go up against the toughest transition defense they have faced yet these entire playoffs.
Some key points to note about the Pacers are they are the most efficient half-court team since the 2021 Nets. Myles Turner will need to effectively utilize his high ball screen and pick-and-pop to take advantage. He was able to hit many threes in that specific way against the Knicks, which made it tougher for the opposing defense them to guard him. The Pacers in general thrive on spot-up threes and shoot nearly 50% from the corner three in these playoffs. To add on, nearly 8 of the 9 rotation players of the Pacers shoot higher than 42% from the corner three. If the Pacers can consistently hit those corner three pointers, they will definitely have a series chance in this series. This forces defenses to help less and limit their rotations. The Thunder may need to attack this by having wings like Jalen Williams guard Turner instead.
On the other side, the Thunder have a versatile defense like I mentioned before, and they can easily slow down this Pacers offense, which will really allow them to dominate. They have forced the most turnovers by any team in NBA History. The Thunder beat the Grizzlies in the first round, and the Grizzlies had the best transition offense in the league as they added on average +4 points each game. When the two faced off in the first round, the Grizzlies went from having 18% of their plays in transition in the regular season to only 12% in the playoffs. That’s quite literally the difference between the best and worst transition teams in the whole league. This is because the Thunder have an aggressive and versatile perimeter defense. Lu Dort and Jalen Williams both made the All-NBA first and second teams respectively. Players like Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso can also defend the other team’s best player. They have the ability to force turnovers and execute properly when pushing the ball up the floor. Having four elite wing defenders will allow the Thunder to apply constant ball pressure. This will give them more options to defend Turner and they can also enable switch ability with Jalen Williams and Lu Dort, while keeping Holmgren as a backup anchor. That’s a lot of basketball terminology, but all I am trying to say is the Thunder have an elite defense. They have to slow down the Pacers early offense tactics and pressure Haliburton on the full court. They also have to limit the corner threes, which is a spot players like Myles Turner and Andrew Nembhard like to thrive on like I previously mentioned. If the Thunder execute their defensive game plan to the fullest, they will probably dominate all series long. However, this is by far the most difficult and dynamic offense the Thunder will have to face in these entire playoffs.
Also, there’s another interesting fact. Even though the Thunder rank first when it comes to their opponents turning the ball over, the Pacers don’t usually turn the ball over as much as they rank 3rd in all times that commit the fewest turnovers. The Pacers transition offense has been historically efficient, however they may struggle against the elite transition defense of the Thunder. The Thunder’s ability to constantly put pressure on the ball and create turnovers could be pivotal on who wins this matchup. The Thunder are also really good when it comes to their transition offense and defense. SGA is really solid when it comes to him isolating and getting buckets. If he can’t score, then players like Jalen Williams are play good off the ball. Y’all know where this is heading. Which ever team can efficiently execute their gameplans in the transition (both offense and defense) will most likely win this series. The Thunder kind of rely heavily on isolation by SGA and not prioritize the ball movement unlike the Pacers. Players like Jalen Williams are effective when they play off ball and Chet Holmgren also does a good job setting screens and cutting to the bucket. To sum it up, both of these teams are really good when it comes to executing in transition. The Pacers have to play fast if they want to win. We saw this in game three of the Eastern Conference Finals where the Pacers were able to build a 20 point lead. Another crucial factor that may determine the outcome of this matchup is how both teams execute their gameplay on the halfcourt. There are also some players that will make or break their team’s chances to win this series. I am specifically talking about SGA and Myles Turner (who I mentioned before).
The Thunder has to force crossmatches by playing fast, similar to the Pacers, as both teams like to create mismatches with the smaller player having to guard a taller player. In the half-court setting, the Thunder tend to use ball movement to create open shots like I just mentioned. Similar to what they have done this entire season and playoffs, they have to let their best players in SGA, Jalen Williams, and even Chet Holmgren to attack the defense and get buckets. The Thunder also heavily rely on spacing and offensive execution, however they often don’t shoot the ball consistently at times. That’s a place where the Pacers need to attack.
The Pacers have been sneakingly good all season long and have continued to prove their doubters wrong. The Pacers are can make this series more closer than people expect them to be. They have won 60 games combined (regular season + playoffs) and have been lethal in the clutch, winning many games after being down a lot. The Pacers are the best team when it comes to scoring in transition, which is something they have to take advantage of if they want to have a chance. This is more crucial when we realize that the Thunder are mediocre when it comes to transition defense while the Pacers were the best team in the entire playoffs when it comes to scoring in transition. Even though people are looking at OKC having a lot of depth and players coming off the bench that can make an impact, we have to consider that the Pacers also have a lot of depth of the bench as well. Players like Obi Toppin, TJ McConnell, Ben Mathurin, and Thomas Bryant have all stepped up when their numbers have been called. To add on, they also have more experience as Pascal Siakam won a championship with the Raptors in 2019, while the Pacers head coach, Rick Carlisle, also coached the 2011 Mavericks to that impressive title. The Thunder are also the youngest team in the entire league, with an average age of 24.15 years. This will make the OKC Thunder the youngest team to reach the NBA Finals in nearly half a century. They will also be the second youngest team ever to make finals with the youngest being the Portland Trail Blazers nearly a half a century ago.
There are many historical implications that would go down regardless of who wins the championship. If Thunder end up winning the finals, SGA will become only the 11th player in history to win MVP and the NBA Championship in the same season. He will definitely be in the conversation for the best player in the Thunder/Supersonics franchise history. He already has the same amount of MVPs as KD and Russ did, and he would also be ahead of Gary Payton. It will pretty much be guaranteed as none of those three players were able to win a championship with the Thunder (or formerly the Supersonics). Another fact about SGA if the Thunder end up wining the title is that he will become the sixth player the NBA History to win the scoring title, regular season MVP, and Finals MVP in the same season. He will be in elite company with the likes of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1971), Michael Jordan (1991, 1992, 1996, and 1998), Shaquille O’Neal (2000), Allen Iverson (2001), and Stephen Curry (2016). AI and Curry were the only ones to not win a championship that season. Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams are going on a path to become future stars similar to the way Kawhi Leonard did it in the past decade. This Thunder team is deep and has definitely proven to be the best team all season long. They are probably the most dominant and effective team since the 2014 Spurs, who also ended up winning the championship that year. However, if the Pacers win this championship, this will definitely be the most impressive title since the Mavericks in 2011. I could argue that it probably would be more impressive since the 2011 Mavericks won 57 games and were a top 4-5 team that year. An interesting fact is that the current head coach of the Pacers, Rick Carlisle, was the head coach of that 2011 Mavericks team. Dirk Nowitzki also had won an MVP 4 years prior to that season. Also, I have an argument that this championship would be more impressive than the 2011 Mavericks. I understands that the Mavericks beat a very good Trail-Blazers team, the defending champions in the Lakers, the young Thunder led by KD and Russ, and of course, the Miami Heat led by the big three of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh. It’s pretty close but nonetheless is impressive. To add on, if the Pacers somehow end up winning, Pascal Siakam would get his second ring. He would add to the already impressive resume of 3x All Stars, 2x All-NBA Teams, Most Improved Player, as well as the D-League Finals MVP and Championship in 2017. Even though we can all agree that Reggie Miller is the greatest Pacer of all time, Tyrese Haliburton will definitely be in that discussion if the Pacers manage to pull off the upset and win the title. If that ends up happening, the Pacers would be the first team to beat two 60-win teams in route to the championship. One would obviously be this Thunder team, and the other would be the 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers team they beat in the second round.
Overall, both the Pacers and Thunder team have some strong similarities and differences. There are certain factors that each team has to take advantage of. They also have to play off their strengths. Here are some X-Factors that will determine the series. First, we have turnovers. The Pacers rarely turn the ball over while the Thunder defense tend to force turnovers at a historic rate. Like I mentioned before, both teams are elite when it comes to the transition (both offense and defense). If the Pacers can keep consistently knocking down the 3-pointers, especially from the corner, they can make the series closer than what a lot of people expect. The Thunder will need solid production from their bench, who tend to be inconsistent at times. The Pacers have players like TJ McConnell, Obi Toppin, and Ben Mathurin, who all can come in and provide solid minutes. They have to really on their better shooting and more offensive weapons in Haliburton, Siakam, and Turner. Another key point to not is that Haliburton is probably the best passer and playmaker in this series. Finally, some key matchups to look out for are SGA against Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner against Chet Holmgren. These matchups will give one of these teams an upper hand over the other. Also, the Pacers have to be careful about Jalen Williams as he can create a lot of plays off the ball. This series can go any way and I expect this Finals to have high-quality basketball, which the last two finals really lacked.
Even after all of that, I won’t believe that this will be a close series. The Thunder had one of the most historic season of all time as they became only the 15th team in NBA history to have 80 wins in the regular season and playoffs combined. All of those prior teams ended up winning the championship. To add on, the Thunder had the best defense in the league as well as a top-three offensive rating in the league. The Thunder can cause more turnovers, have better wing defense, and more depth, which can allow for more lineup flexibility and changes. As a matter of fact, the Thunder had an 12.8 net rating, which was the second-best in NBA History only behind the 1996 Chicago Bulls. Y’all probably know where this conversation is heading. I predict the Oklahoma City Thunder will win the 2025 NBA Championship and it will not be close. The Pacers will probably get one miracle comeback win as they have done all season long, but the rest will be blowouts.
(Final Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder in 5)
